基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市路网地震情景构建与薄弱环节识别

赵谷子; 尚庆学; 王涛

doi:10.12454/j.jsuese.202600447

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基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市路网地震情景构建与薄弱环节识别

更新时间：2026-07-31

- 基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市路网地震情景构建与薄弱环节识别
- Seismic Scenario Construction and Weak-Link Identification of Urban Road Networks Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
- 工程科学与技术 2026年页码：1-10
- 作者机构：
  
  1.中国地震局工程力学研究所，地震工程与工程振动重点实验室，哈尔滨 150080
  2.地震灾害防治应急管理部重点实验室，哈尔滨 150080
- 作者简介：
  
  赵谷子（1999—），男，硕士生. 研究方向：城市公路交通系统抗震韧性评价. E-mail： bo468013@163.com
  尚庆学，副研究员，博士，E-mail： shangqingxue@iem.ac.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52125806);中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项项目(2026C03;2025B03)
- DOI：10.12454/j.jsuese.202600447
  中图分类号： TU352.1
- 收稿：2026-05-22，
  
  修回：2026-07-30，
  
  网络首发：2026-07-31，
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
赵谷子,尚庆学,王涛.基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市路网地震情景构建与薄弱环节识别[J].工程科学与技术,

ZHAO Guzi,SHANG Qingxue,WANG Tao.Seismic Scenario Construction and Weak-Link Identification of Urban Road Networks Based on Monte Carlo Simulation[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,
赵谷子,尚庆学,王涛.基于蒙特卡洛模拟的城市路网地震情景构建与薄弱环节识别[J].工程科学与技术, DOI：10.12454/j.jsuese.202600447.

ZHAO Guzi,SHANG Qingxue,WANG Tao.Seismic Scenario Construction and Weak-Link Identification of Urban Road Networks Based on Monte Carlo Simulation[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences, DOI：10.12454/j.jsuese.202600447.XXXX,XX(XX):1‒10.

摘要

为了研究地震灾害下城市路网的地震损伤及功能退化过程，识别路网中具有较高失效风险且对系统功能影响较大的关键交通单元，本文基于蒙特卡洛模拟对城市公路交通系统开展了地震灾害情景构建和抗震薄弱环节识别。在设定地震场景下基于道路与桥梁的地震易损性模型，通过蒙特卡洛随机抽样得到交通单元的损伤状态，并统计其发生功能失效时的样本次数。结合地震中沿街建筑的损伤情况，基于瓦砾堆积算法量化沿街建筑倒塌产生的瓦砾对路段通行能力的阻塞效应，将道路损伤、桥梁损伤与瓦砾阻塞影响按串联系统假定进行耦合，得到交通单元的综合损伤状态及失效概率分布。在此基础上，将震后路网表示为以通行时间为边权的带权图，利用狄克斯特拉最短路径算法计算地震前、后各节点之间通行成本的变化，并采用网络效率指标量化系统功能水平及退化程度。在抗震薄弱环节识别部分，在已有交通单元震害分析和路网功能评价方法的基础上，将交通单元失效概率、失效对网络功能的影响及其社区服务重要度进行综合，构建交通单元综合薄弱性指标，并通过薄弱单元与随机单元失效结果的对比，对识别结果进行检验。结果表明，在20次对照试验中，薄弱单元组失效导致的系统功能下降平均值为5.44%，显著高于对照组的1.76%，说明所构建的薄弱性指标能够较有效地识别影响城市路网震后功能的关键单元，可为城市交通系统震前加固、震后抢通修复和应急交通保障提供方法参考。

Abstract

Objective Urban road networks may lose functionality after earthquakes due to seismic damage of roads and bridges and blockage caused by debris from collapsed roadside buildings. The effects of individual damaged units may spread through changes in network connectivity and travel time

while the importance of a transportation unit also depends on the communities and emergency facilities it serves. Existing assessment methods often emphasize either damage probability or network importance

which failed to fully represent both aspects in a specific earthquake scenario. A Monte Carlo-based procedure was therefore established to construct seismic damage scenarios f

or urban road networks and to identify weak transportation units by jointly considering unit failure probability

network-level functional influence

and community service importance.Methods The urban road network was represented as a weighted graph in which road intersections and segment endpoints were nodes

road and bridge units were edges

and travel time was the edge weight. Each edge was assigned with its normal travel time before the earthquake and updated according to the combined damage state and residual capacity after the earthquake. Lognormal fragility functions were used to describe the probabilities that road and bridge units would reach or exceed five damage states

namely essentially intact

slight damage

moderate damage

severe damage

and complete damage under a given peak ground acceleration. For each unit and each simulation

a random number uniformly distributed between 0 and 1 was compared with the exceedance probabilities to determine the sampled damage state. Repeated sampling was used to obtain damage state distributions and failure probabilities. The influence of roadside building collapse was evaluated through a debris accumulation model. The debris quantity entering a road segment was estimated based on building height

floor area

and horizontal distance from the building boundary to the near-side lane boundary. Debris contributions from both sides were summed

and a segment-specific critical quantity was scaled according to road length and width. A standard critical debris quantity of 5 000 m²

a standard length of 800 m

and a standard width of 25 m were adopted. The resulting passability probability was mapped to the same five damage states. Structural damage and debris blockage were combined based on a series-system assumption

and the more unfavorable state was taken as the combined damage state. The five states were associated with traffic-capacity reduction factors of 1.0

0.7

0.4

and 0

respectively. For passable units

post-earthquake travel time was obtained by dividin

g free-flow travel time by the reduction factor; units with a zero factor were treated as impassable. Dijkstra's algorithm was used to calculate the shortest travel time between node pairs. Network efficiency was used to quantify system functionality

and residual functionality was defined as the ratio of post-earthquake to pre-earthquake network efficiency. A composite weak-link index was constructed considering the effects of unit failure probability

static importance

and community service importance. Static importance was characterized by the change in network efficiency after unit removal while considering repair time. Community service importance was calculated from the population and number of emergency facilities in each community and assigned to directly connected units. The index was used for relative ranking within the case study

and the top-ranked 10% were classified as weak units. The method was applied to a benchmark city containing 798 nodes

1 194 road units

64 bridge units

9 786 buildings

and 371 community units. The prescribed earthquake had a magnitude of

7.0

a focal depth of 4 km

and a fault length of 58 km. The ground-motion field was corrected considering site conditions

and unit peak ground acceleration was averaged from its starting node and midpoint. A total of 1 000 Monte Carlo realizations were performed.Results and Discussions The residual functionality obtained from the 1 000 realizations had a mean of 0.669 7

a standard deviation of 0.031 4

and a median of 0.669 8

indicating that the simulated post-earthquake functionality varied because of damage uncertainty but remained relatively concentrated under the prescribed scenario. The realization with residual functionality closest to the overall mean was selected as the representative damage scenario. Among the 1 194 road units

700 were essentially intact

89 were slightly damaged

165 were moderately damaged

168 were severely damaged

and 72 were completely damaged. Among the 64 bridge units

he corresponding numbers were 23

and 9. The building assessment showed that 16.65% of the buildings experienced slight damage

64.60% were moderate damaged

9.07% were severe damaged

and 9.66% were complete damaged. The weak-link identification results were examined through 20 comparative tests under an initially undamaged network condition. In each test

20 units were randomly selected from the weak-unit set and assumed to be completely damaged

and another 20 units were selected from the remaining units as the control group. The average functionality loss caused by the weak-unit group was 5.44%

with a standard deviation of 0.63%

whereas the control group produced an average loss of 1.76%

with a standard deviation of 0.49%. The difference between the mean losses was 3.68%. In this case study

the units ranked as weak links produced larger network-function losses than randomly selected units from the remaining set.Conclusions The developed procedure connected ground-motion input

road and bridge fragility

building-debris blockage

traffic-capacity degradation

shortest-path calculation

network-efficiency evaluation

and weak-link ranking within one scenario-based analysis process. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate failure probabilities and the uncertainty in transportation unit damage was therefore included. The composite index combined failure probability

network influence

and community service importance and provided a relative ranking of units for the benchmark network. The comparison tests showed that the selected weak-unit group caused greater functionality losses than the control group under the assumptions used. The procedure can support screening of transportation units for pre-earthquake reinforcement and post-earthquake road clearance or repair planning. It should be noted that the proposed method is still limited by simplified capacity-reduction relations

the absence of origin-destination demand

traffic reassignment

and congestion propagation

and the heuristic form of

the composite index. Further work should examine other urban networks and earthquake scenarios and incorporate more detailed traffic and emergency-demand data.

关键词

Keywords

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