Abstract:In order to solve the electric vehicles scale prediction problem of lack of historical data and professional method

this paper is motivated to present a scale evolution algorithm which can help to measure the development of electric vehicles with considering multiple parameters. By employing the system dynamics theory

the presented theory is able to establish an effective model which is further used in the analysis of the development of electric vehicles. In the simulation

a number of important parameters have been studied including policy，subsidy，charge price，and so on

key factors in the three stages

i.e. “demonstration promotion

rapid growth and steady development”

are analyzed by sensitivity verification. The simulation results indicate that the evolution of electric vehicles scale would grow upward fast in future

while the purchasing ratio would be shown as S type curve

in which the change in the early stage would be affected by the government policies

while the development of technology and infrastructure construction will become the most critical factors in the later stage.