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四川大学水利水电学院
纸质出版日期:2017,
网络出版日期:2017-5-25,
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谢锐敏,崔宁博.1961-2013年中国粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量时空演变特征研究[J].工程科学与技术,2017,49(Z2):16-24.
xie rui min, Cui Ning Bo. Spatia and Temporal Characteristics of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in the Main Grain Production Area of China from 1961 to 2013[J]. Advanced Engineering Sciences, 2017,49(Z2):16-24.
中文摘要: 摘 要:准确评估粮食主产区参考作物蒸散量(reference crop evapotranspiration,ET0)时空变化特征,对灌区水资源优化调度、灌溉制度优化、农田水分高效利用及粮食水分生产力提高等均具有重要意义。本文基于中国粮食主产区258个气象站点逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith 公式计算1961-2013年参考作物蒸散量,通过Sen's+Mann-Kendall法、累积距平法及气象倾向率等方法对其近53a来时空变化趋势与特征进行分析。结果表明:近53a来中国粮食主产区(全区)、温带湿润半湿润地区(I区)、温带干旱半干旱地区(II区)、亚热带湿润地区(III区)及暖温带半湿润地区(IV区)ET0年均值分别为901.90mm、741.89mm、1077.93mm、940.17mm、847.61mm,呈现II>III>全区>IV>I区的趋势;全区及I-IV区主要作物生长季(3-10月)ET0约占全年ET0的87.58%、91.91%、90.05%、85.11%和83.39%;除IV(其年倾向率Y为0.002mm/a)区外,全区及I-III区ET0近53a整体呈现下降趋势,其中全区呈下降趋势的站点数达171个,占总数的61.0%,年倾斜率达到显著下降水平,其Y值为-0.288*mm/a(P<0.05);全区及各分区ET0在90年代均呈增大趋势,其年尺度上Sen’s趋势度β全区=4.993,M-K检验值Z全区=1.978* (P<0.05),增大趋势显著,其它各年代际上趋势减小;近53a来ET0空间分布基本呈西北向东南东北方向递减趋势,具有明显的地区差异,ET0高值区主要集中在内蒙古与四川地区西北部,低值区主要集中在四川盆地与东北平原以东、以北大部分地区,且年ET0高值、中高值、中值、低值区域站点数分别占总站数的3.5%、12.4%、58.5%、25.6%;ET0的年内M-K趋势变化差异较大,春季,粮食主产区ET0趋势自北向南增大,夏季与之相反;秋季,ET0趋势呈现中部低南北高的趋势,而冬季较秋季有明显的下降趋势,整体呈现由“北-南,西-东”递减的趋势;主要作物生长季上ET0在华北平原(显著下降)和东北平原中部趋势下降,东北平原四周及长江中下游地区趋势增大。
Abstract:Abstract: Accurate assessment of the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the reference crop evapotranspiration in the main grain producing areas is of great significance to the optimal irrigation scheduling
irrigation system optimization
efficient use of farmland water and improvement of grain water productivity.Based on the daily meteorological data from 258 meteorological stations in main grain-production region
this paper calculated the Reference crop evapotranspiration from 1961 to 2013 by adopting Penman-Monteith formula
and analyzed the space-time variation during the 53 years by Sen’s+Mann-Kendall
Cumulative anomaly method and meteorological tendency rate.The results showed that:during the 53 years ET0 in main grain-production regions
Temperate humid and semi-humid area (I)
Temperate arid and semi-arid area (II)
Subtropical humid area (III) and Warm temperate semi-humid climate zone (IV) respectively were 901.90mm
741.89mm
1077.93mm
940.17mm (II>III>the whole region>IV>I);ET0 of the main crop growing season accounted for 87.58%
90.05%
85.11%
83.39% of the whole year
in the region and the various divisions;Except for IV(the tendency rate Y is 0.002mm/a ) ET0 in the whole region and I-III regions presented the decreasing trend during the 53years
the number of stations in downward was 171 accounting for 61.0%
the region slope decreased significantly and the trend variation was -0.288*mm/a(P<0.05);The whole area and each district ET0 showed an increasing trend in 90s
the βwhole=4.993
Zwhole=1.978* (P<0.05)
the trend of increase is significant
other decadal trend decreases; ET0 high value areas mainly concentrated in the northwest of Sichuan and Inner Mongolia
low value areas mainly concentrated in the Sichuan basin and the eastern part of the northeast plain to the north part of the region ;ET0 showed degression from northwest to southeast with apparent regional difference
the stations showed the high value
med-high value
median and low value respectively accounted for 3.5%
12.4%
58.5%
25.6% of the whole stations; During the recent 53 years
the variation in trend of ET0 was greater within the year
ET0 showed an increasing trend from north to south in spring
but it was opposite in summer
then in autumn
ET0 in the major grain producing areas showed the tendency of low in central and high in north and south
compared with the autumn
ET0 had significant decline in winner
and it presented an overall downward trend by “North-South
West-East”
on main crops growing season
the ET0 decreased in the North China plain(declined significantly) and the central Northeast plain
and it had an increasing trend around the North plain and the lower reaches of Yangtze River region.
Penman-Monteith粮食主产区ET0趋势Mann-Kendall空间分布
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