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工程科学与技术:2023,55(1):243-252
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中国碳中和目标下的天然气产业发展与贡献
(1.四川大学 中德能源研究中心,四川 成都 610065;2.克劳斯塔尔工业大学 地下能源系统研究所,克劳斯塔尔-采勒菲尔德 38678;3.西南石油大学 油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610500;4.中国石油勘探开发研究院,河北 廊坊 065007)
Development and Contribution of Natural Gas Industry Under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality in China
(1.Sino-German Energy Research Center, Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China;2.Inst. of Subsurface Energy Systems, Clausthal Univ. of Technol., Clausthal–Zellerfeld 38678, Germany;3.Stake Key Lab. of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitatlon, Southwest Petroleum Univ., Chengdu 610500, China;4.PetroChina Research Inst. of Petroleum Exploration & Development, Langfang 065007, China)
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投稿时间:2022-03-18    修订日期:2022-08-30
中文摘要: 实现碳中和已经成为中国重大国家战略,在此目标导向下,中国的能源供需结构将迎来深刻变革,天然气作为清洁高效的低碳化石能源,肩负着能源消费结构从高碳污染向低碳绿色过渡的重要使命。分析研究天然气对于中国碳中和目标实现的贡献及在新形势下行业的发展前景具有重要现实意义和价值。为此,本文首先对碳中和概念及其内涵和实现方法进行了分析梳理,阐述了天然气对于“双碳”目标的贡献;同时,归纳总结了国内外研究机构、企业和学者对中国天然气行业的发展前景预测,并基于对中国经济发展的基本判断,构建了3种发展情景:基准情景、低速情景和高速情景;通过定基能源消费弹性系数法对中国“双碳”目标时期的一次能源消费总量及天然气消费量进行了预测。在此基础上,从中国天然气的供需两端论述了行业发展的方向和前景。最后,还对天然气在碳中和时代与其他绿色能源的耦合式发展提出了建议。研究结果表明:1)由于天然气清洁、便利等特性,应快速提高其使用量及在能源系统中的占比,在碳中和时代替代煤炭成为化石能源中的主体能源,与可再生能源共同构建起清洁能源体系;2)在假设情景中,预计2030年中国一次能源消费总量为55.14×108~60.78×108 t(吨标准煤),天然气消费量在5 449×108~6 006×108 m3之间;2060年一次能源消费总量为53.43×108~68.20×108 t,天然气消费量预计达到5 280×108~6 740×108 m3,天然气行业具有巨大的发展空间。针对中国天然气产业发展提出了建议:1)在供给端加大对常规天然气探勘开发力度的同时,积极推动对页岩气、煤层气、生物天然气及天然气水合物等非常规天然气的开发和试采,同时,促进进口LNG和管道气等贸易,巩固能源供应安全,丰富供应类型;燃气发电和工业用热将成为天然气在消费端的主要使用途径,尤其在未来以新能源为主体的新型电力系统中,气电将发挥快速响应等优势承担电网调峰调频作用;工业领域需大力推动以气代煤,提高天然气在高耗能行业的使用量;2)结合可再生能源产业现状从生产、储运、利用3方面提出了天然气产业与风能、太阳能和氢能等绿色可再生能源系统深度耦合发展的思路:天然气开发过程中引入更多电驱设备,大力发展二氧化碳强化页岩气开采、CCUS等负排放技术;重视天然气管网和储气库等基础设施尤其是应急调峰能力建设,实现电转气、储氢、碳封存等技术的深度融合;结合新型电网,通过数字和智能技术改造管理和控制模式,实现天然气储集运输及消费的智能化,助力天然气与新能源高质量协同发展,确保“双碳”战略目标的实现。
Abstract:Achieving carbon neutrality has become a national strategy for China. Under this goal, China’s energy supply and demand structure will undergo profound changes. As a clean and efficient low-carbon fossil energy source, natural gas plays an essential role in the transition of energy consumption from high to low carbon. It is practical and worthwhile to analyze and study the contributions of natural gas to realize China’s carbon neutral goal and its perspective in the industry. In this work, the investigation of the carbon neutral concept and the implementation methods was conducted first. According to the data from research institutions, enterprises, and scholars, the prospects of China’s natural gas industry were summarized. Three scenarios were constructed based on the judgment of China’s economic development: baseline scenario, low-speed scenario, and high-speed scenario. Through the fixed base energy consumption elasticity coefficient method, the total primary energy, and natural gas consumption in the period of China’s carbon target were predicted. This study also summarizes the industry's development prospects from the supply and demand aspects of natural gas in China. The suggestions for the coupled development of natural gas and other green energy in the carbon neutral era were also made. It is found that: 1) Due to the cleanness and convenience, the consumption and proportion of natural gas in the energy system should be rapidly increased to replace coal, and it should be jointly constructed with renewable energy. 2) Based on the assumptions of the existing research, it is estimated that the total primary energy consumption of China in 2030 is 55.14×108 t~60.78×108 t (ton standard coal), and the natural gas consumption is 5 449×108 m3~6 006×108 m3; The total primary energy consumption in 2060 is 53.4108 t~68.20×108 t, and the natural gas consumption is expected to reach 5 280×108 m3~6 740×108 m3, thus the natural gas industry has huge development potential. Based on these findings, the suggestions are put forward for developing China’s natural gas industry: 1) While increasing the exploration and development of conventional natural gas at the supply side, China should actively promote the development of unconventional natural gas such as shale gas, coalbed methane, and natural gas hydrate. Moreover, boosting trade in LNG and pipeline gas to consolidate energy supply security; Gas-fired power generation and industrial heat will become the main ways of using natural gas on the consumer side. Especially in the new power system with new energy as the main source, gas power will take advantage of rapid response to bear the role of power system peak regulation and frequency regulation; The industrial sector needs to promote the replacement of coal with gas proactively, particularly in energy-intensive industries; 2) Combined with the current situation of the renewable energy industry, the roadmap of deep coupling development of the natural gas industry and green renewable energy systems such as wind, solar, and hydrogen is proposed from the three aspects: production, storage and transportation, and utilization, respectively. Firstly, increasing electric equipment in natural gas development process and developing CO2-enhanced shale gas extraction, CCUS or other negative emission technologies aggressively; Giving priority to infrastructure such as natural gas pipeline networks and underground gas storage, particularly emergency peak-shaving capacity construction to realize the deep integration of technologies such as power-to-gas, hydrogen storage, and carbon storage; Additionally, combined with the new power systems, through digital and intelligent technology to transform the management and control mode, realizing the intelligentization of natural gas storage, transportation and consumption, promoting the high-quality coordinated development of natural gas and new energy to ensure the realization of the “Dual Carbon” goals.
文章编号:202200226     中图分类号:F426.22;X322    文献标志码:
基金项目:四川省国际科技创新合作项目(2021YFH0010);四川省科技计划项目(2022JDRC0098)
作者简介:第一作者:侯正猛(1963-),男,教授,博士.研究方向:岩土及环境能源岩土工程,油气工程.E-mail:hou@tu-clausthal.de;通信作者:罗佳顺,E-mail:jiashun.luo@tu-clausthal.de
引用文本:
侯正猛,罗佳顺,曹成,丁国生.中国碳中和目标下的天然气产业发展与贡献[J].工程科学与技术,2023,55(1):243-252.
HOU Zhengmeng,LUO Jiashun,CAO Cheng,DING Guosheng.Development and Contribution of Natural Gas Industry Under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality in China[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2023,55(1):243-252.