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投稿时间:2021-07-14 修订日期:2022-07-26
投稿时间:2021-07-14 修订日期:2022-07-26
中文摘要: 水库群实时调度能结合有效的水文预报信息对水库在实时运行层面权衡防洪与兴利效益具有指导意义。然而,水文预报信息的利用面临着不可规避的不确定性问题,故水库群实时调度运行需要考虑风险控制方法的研究。本文针对耦合水文预报的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制问题,提出了可考虑各水库不同预见期长度、不同预报精度的两阶段风险率计算方法,并将其应用于构建水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型。首先,两阶段风险率是将未来调度时段按预见期节点分为预见期以内和预见期以外两个阶段,预见期以内考虑径流预报不确定性带来的风险,采用集合预报思想统计多组预报径流情景在预见期以内的失事概率;预见期以外考虑因预见期末水位过高难于应对后续洪水的潜在风险,根据历史设计洪水的调洪演算试算风险率。其次,基于所提出的两阶段风险率方法构建以发电量最大为目标函数的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型。将该方法应用于汉江流域5库群系统,其研究结果表明:1)提出的两阶段风险率计算方法可兼顾考虑实时调度阶段由径流不确定性引起的预见期以内、预见期以外的潜在风险;2)相比于常规调度方案,优化调度模型方案在2020年实测夏汛期径流情景下提高了库群系统发电量为2.30×108 kW·h。因此,基于两阶段风险分析构建的水库群优化调度模型,可求解得出的水库群系统库容动态最优决策过程,且该优化调度模型可在不增加汛期防洪风险的基础上提高水库群系统的发电效益。
Abstract:Real-time reservoirs operation can be combined with effective hydrological forecast information, which is of significant guide for the trade-offs between the flood control and utilizable benefit. However, the use of hydrological forecast information faces unavoidable uncertainties. Therefore, the flood risk control analysis should be considered in the field of the real-time reservoir operation. A dynamic control model of multi-reservoir flood limited water levels (FLWLs) during flood seasons based on the two-stage flood risk analysis method is proposed to solve the problem that the length and accuracy of forecast period among reservoirs in the system do not match with each other. First, the two-stage flood risk analysis method evaluates the uncertainty of the flood forecasting by dividing the operation horizon into the forecast lead-time and the beyond-forecast time period. The risk within the forecast lead-time induced by the streamflow uncertainty is estimated by counting the frequency of failure numbers among all scenarios with the help of the scenario-based forecasts. The risk beyond the forecast time period caused by the possible high-water level at the end of the forecast period is determined using reservoir flood routing with the design flood hydrographs. A real-time model of multi-reservoir systems is then established by considering the two-stage flood risk analysis method, and the objective of this model is to maximize the hydropower benefit. The results show that: 1) the proposed two-stage flood risk analysis method can take into account the potential risks within and beyond the forecast time period; 2) the proposed dynamic control of the FLWLs in multi-reservoir systems can increase the total hydropower generation in summer flood season for the five-reservoir system of the Hanjiang River Basin by 0.23 billion kW·h in 2010 year without increasing the flood risk, and the dynamic optimal decision-making process of the multi-reservoir system’s flood storage can be obtained.
keywords: two-stage analysis method multi-reservoir flood limited water level during flood seasons flood risk Hanjiang River basin
文章编号:202100688 中图分类号:TV21 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52109003);国家自然科学基金重大项目(41890822)
作者简介:第一作者:张晓琦(1993—),女,工程师,博士. 研究方向:水文学及水资源. E-mail:zhangxq@mail.crsri.cn;通信作者:刘攀, E-mail:liupan@whu.edu.cn
引用文本:
张晓琦,刘攀,陈进,许继军,姚立强,王永强,洪晓峰.基于两阶段风险分析的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型[J].工程科学与技术,2022,54(5):141-148.
ZHANG Xiaoqi,LIU Pan,CHEN Jin,XU Jijun,YAO Liqiang,WANG Yongqiang,HONG Xiaofeng.Dynamic Control Model of Multi-reservoir Flood Limited Water Levels During Flood Seasons Based on the Two-stage Flood Risk Analysis[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2022,54(5):141-148.
引用文本:
张晓琦,刘攀,陈进,许继军,姚立强,王永强,洪晓峰.基于两阶段风险分析的水库群汛期运行水位动态控制模型[J].工程科学与技术,2022,54(5):141-148.
ZHANG Xiaoqi,LIU Pan,CHEN Jin,XU Jijun,YAO Liqiang,WANG Yongqiang,HONG Xiaofeng.Dynamic Control Model of Multi-reservoir Flood Limited Water Levels During Flood Seasons Based on the Two-stage Flood Risk Analysis[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2022,54(5):141-148.