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投稿时间:2021-07-07 修订日期:2022-07-24
投稿时间:2021-07-07 修订日期:2022-07-24
中文摘要: 溃坝后果严重程度综合评价是大坝风险评价与风险管理的重要组成部分。针对传统溃坝后果综合评价中人为主观设定指标权重固定不变,以及评价指标值与评价等级标准隶属过程中存在不相容等问题,基于现有法律法规以及行业规范,选取生命损失、经济损失、社会影响和环境影响为溃坝后果综合评价指标,采用变权理论对评价指标常权权重进行修正,利用集对分析能有效处理系统不确定性的特点和可拓学处理不相容性问题的优势,构建基于变权集对–可拓耦合的综合评价模型。通过集对分析的同、异、反划分可拓集合的论域进而确定可拓联系隶属度,结合评价指标变权权重计算集成可拓联系隶属度,进而按最大集成可拓联系隶属度原则确定评价等级。将该模型应用于江西省5座水库溃坝后果综合评价中。结果显示:1)指数型激励性状态变权向量对5座水库溃坝后果综合评价中各个较差的评价指标进行了一定程度上的激励,增大了其权重值,突出了较差指标在综合评价中的地位,避免了较差指标的消极作用被较好指标掩盖;2)5座水库溃坝后果综合评价等级与其他多种评价模型计算出的评价等级基本吻合,且离散程度最高、区分度更好,显示了所提出的模型具有良好的实用性,为溃坝后果综合评价提供了一种新方法。
Abstract:The comprehensive assessment of severity degree of dam failure impact is an important part of dam risk evaluation and management. There are two major problems identified in the traditional comprehensive evaluation of dam break consequences: Constant weight set subjectively determined by human beings, and incompatibility between evaluation index value and evaluation grade standard. In order to solve the above-mentioned drawbacks, based on existing laws and regulations and industry norms, the life loss, economic loss, social impact and environmental impact are selected as comprehensive evaluation indexes of dam break consequences, considering the characteristics that the set pair analysis deals with the uncertainty of the system effectively and the advantage of extenics in dealing with the incompatibility problem, the variable weight set pair–extenics coupling model is established, in which the variable weight theory is used to modify the constant weight. In this model, the connection membership degree of extenics is determined according to the domain of extenics set divided by identity, difference and opposite of set pair analysis. Furthermore, the integrated connection membership degree of extenics is calculated combined with the variable weight, and is used to determine the evaluation grade according to the principle of the maximum membership. The application to the comprehensive evaluation of dam break consequences of five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province. The results show that: 1) In the comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of dam break of five reservoirs, the exponential excitation state variable weight vector motivates the poor evaluation indexes to a certain extent and increases their weight values, highlighting the status of the poor indexes in the comprehensive evaluation, avoiding the negative effects of the poor indexes being covered by the good indexes, and emphasizing their seriousness; 2) The comprehensive evaluation grades of dam break consequences of the five reservoirs are basically consistent with the evaluation grades calculated by other evaluation models, with the highest degree of dispersion and better discrimination, which shows good practicability and provides a new method for comprehensive evaluation of dam break consequences.
keywords: dam break consequences comprehensive evaluation variable weight set pair–extenics coupling
文章编号:202100658 中图分类号:TV698 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(52079127;52179144;U2040224;51679222;51709239);河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划项目(22HASTIT011);河南省青年人才托举工程(2021HYTP024);国家大坝安全工程技术研究中心开放基金项目(CX2020B01)
作者简介:第一作者:李宗坤(1961—),男,教授,博士. 研究方向:水利工程风险评价与管控研究. E-mail:lizongkun@zzu.edu.cn;通信作者:葛巍, E-mail:gewei@zzu.edu.cn
引用文本:
李宗坤,莫向明,葛巍,王特.基于变权集对–可拓耦合模型的溃坝后果综合评价[J].工程科学与技术,2022,54(5):64-71.
LI Zongkun,MO Xiangming,GE Wei,WANG Te.Comprehensive Evaluation of Dam-break Consequences Based on Variable Weight Set Pair–Extenics Coupling Model[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2022,54(5):64-71.
引用文本:
李宗坤,莫向明,葛巍,王特.基于变权集对–可拓耦合模型的溃坝后果综合评价[J].工程科学与技术,2022,54(5):64-71.
LI Zongkun,MO Xiangming,GE Wei,WANG Te.Comprehensive Evaluation of Dam-break Consequences Based on Variable Weight Set Pair–Extenics Coupling Model[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2022,54(5):64-71.