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工程科学与技术:2021,53(6):1-20
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崩滑型堰塞坝危险性快速评估研究进展(特约稿)
(1.同济大学 地下建筑与工程系,上海 200092;2.同济大学 岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室,上海 200092;3.南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029;4.融信集团 浙江区域集团,浙江 杭州 310000)
Research Progress on Rapid Hazard Assessment of Landslide Dams Caused by Landslides and Avalanches (Invited Contribution)
(1.Dept. of Geotechnical Eng., Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China;2.Key Lab. of Geotechnical and Underground Eng. of Ministry of Education, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China;3.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Inst., Nanjing 210029, China;4.Zhejiang Regional Group, Ronshine Group, Hangzhou 310000, China)
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投稿时间:2021-06-01    修订日期:2021-08-20
中文摘要: 崩滑型堰塞坝(本文简称堰塞坝)是由地震、降雨、火山喷发等自然因素诱发的崩塌、滑坡堵塞河道所形成的天然土石坝,其在世界范围内广泛分布。崩滑型堰塞坝的形成与溃决具有高突发性、突溃性和强致灾性,严重威胁所在流域的人民生命财产安全。因此,快速开展堰塞坝危险性评估,对应急抢险救灾具有重要的现实意义。目前,对堰塞坝危险性快速评估的研究主要集中在成坝可能性、稳定性、寿命和溃决洪水4个方面。本文总结了堰塞坝成坝影响因素和成坝快速判别公式,系统阐述了堰塞坝稳定性和寿命的定义、影响因素及快速评估模型,详细归纳分析了堰塞坝溃决模式、溃坝影响因素及坝址与下游河道的洪水快速预测模型。研究表明:堰塞坝的形成主要受地形条件、固体物源条件和水源条件的影响;其稳定性、寿命和溃决主要受坝体几何形态、坝体材料与结构和水文特征等方面影响。根据影响因素所建立的评估模型在一定程度上可以快速估算堰塞坝的稳定性、寿命、溃决流量等参数,但由于信息获取不便等问题,评估结果仍然存在一定的不确定性。基于此,本文提出今后的研究方向:1)考虑不同外因(地震、降雨等)条件下滑坡、崩塌启动及运移过程大型模型试验,建立考虑关键影响因素和水土物质相互作用的成坝快速判别模型;2)基于物探等手段开展堰塞坝坝体材料和结构参数的快速获取研究;3)建立考虑能量转换与耗散的溃坝程度快速评估模型,分析残余坝体致灾危险性;4)构建流域堰塞坝溃决洪水演进及水库调蓄减灾分析模型,指导流域水量调度及流域范围内工程建设;5)开展堰塞坝灾害链对全流域影响的快速动态风险评估,为堰塞坝灾害预测及应急处置提供重要参考依据。
Abstract:Landslide dams usually formed by river blockages with massive amounts of materials from avalanches, landslides caused by earthquake, rainfall, and volcanic eruption. The formation and breaching of landslide dams caused by landslides or avalanche normally have characteristics of sudden occurrence, sudden breach and high risks, posing great threats to people and infrastructure upstream and downstream. The study of rapid hazard assessment of landslide dams is of great significance for emergency risks management. At present, rapid hazard assessment of landslide dams mainly focuses on four aspects, i.e., the possibility of dam formation, stability, longevity, and breaching flood. This paper first reviewed the influencing factors and efficient discriminant formula study of landslide dam formation. Then, the definition, affecting factors and rapid evaluation model of the stability and longevity of landslide dams were specifically summarized. Finally, the failure modes, affecting factors and quick prediction models of dam breaching flood were analyzed in detail. The present research showed that the formation of landslide dams was mainly affected by the topographic conditions, solid material sources and water sources, and the stability, longevity, and breaching parameters were mainly influenced by the geometrical characteristics, materials, structures, and hydrological characteristics of landslide dams. The evaluation models based on the influencing factors can estimate the formation, stability, longevity, and breaching parameters quickly, but the accuracy of results still needs to be improved. On this basis, five directions are proposed for further research: 1) large-scale model tests on the occurrence and migration process of landslides or avalanches under different factors (e.g., earthquake, rainfall) should be carried out, so as to establish the rapid assessment model of dam formation; 2) new methods to obtain the dam materials and internal structural quickly should be studied; 3) prediction research on breaching degree of landslide dam should be carried out to analyze the risk of residual landslide dam; 4) quick assessment model of dam breaching flood should be established from the perspective of watershed to guide water dispatching and engineering construction; 5) dynamic risk assessment of the impact of disaster chain on the whole river basin should be carried out to provide important reference for disaster prediction and emergency treatment.
文章编号:202100595     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41731283;41877234;42071010;42061160480);水利部土石坝破坏机理与防控技术重点实验室开放基金(YK321001);上海市自然科学基金项目(20ZR1461300)
作者简介:第一作者:石振明(1968-),男,教授,博士.研究方向:地质灾害与防治.E-mail:94026@tongji.edu.cn石振明,辽宁喀左人,地质工程专家,1994年毕业于同济大学水文地质与工程地质专业。现为同济大学土木工程学院教授,博士生导师,国家重点研发计划首席科学家。兼任岩石力学与工程学会地质与岩土工程监测分会副理事长、中国地质学会工程地质专业委员常务委员、中国地质学会地质灾害研究分会委员等职务,为国际期刊《Geoenvironmental Disasters》副主编。长期致力于地质灾害与防治,工程地质原位测试和岩体工程性质的研究与实践。主持国家重点研发计划项目“强震区滑坡崩塌灾害防治技术方法研究”,国家自然科学基金重点项目“堰塞坝全寿命过程对全流域影响的时空演化分析与风险管控”等国家级和省部级项目20余项。自2008年汶川地震以来,系统开展了以堰塞坝为中心的地质灾害研究,形成了从堰塞坝的形成机理、动力稳定性、渗透稳定性、溃决机理、水土物质运移到动态风险管控的堰塞坝地质灾害研究体系,首次提出了堰塞坝全寿命过程对全流域影响时空演化的概念,取得了一系列国际领先的研究成果,并通过校–研–企交叉合作凝聚和培育了一支稳定的地质灾害领域的高水平研究队伍。累计发表论文130余篇,其中SCI/EI检索论文60余篇;编写教材5本,主编及参编规范(标准)4项,授权国家发明专利15项。获得中国岩石力学与工程学会科学技术(自然科学奖)一等奖、中国公路学会二等奖、上海市科技进步二等奖等多项省部级奖励。通信作者:彭铭,E-mail:pengming@tongji.edu.cn
引用文本:
石振明,沈丹祎,彭铭,钟启明,蒋明子.崩滑型堰塞坝危险性快速评估研究进展(特约稿)[J].工程科学与技术,2021,53(6):1-20.
SHI Zhenming,SHEN Danyi,PENG Ming,ZHONG Qiming,JIANG Mingzi.Research Progress on Rapid Hazard Assessment of Landslide Dams Caused by Landslides and Avalanches (Invited Contribution)[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2021,53(6):1-20.