Abstract:The evaluation of water resources carrying capacity is an important part of sustainable development strategy of regional water resources system. However, the current evaluation methods often rely on static data to construct the correlation function between the research object and the level standard, and the information evolution is not adequately considered. To solve this problem, in this paper, the set pair analysis potential evaluation method and the partial connection number method were used to explore the dynamic balance between different levels, and a new water resources carrying capacity evaluation model was constructed. Firstly, the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity and the grade standard were obtained, and the ternary evaluation connection numbers of each research object were calculated. Secondly, based on the first-order partial connection number method, the support degree of the connection number to each level was represented by the sum of each component and the first-order evolution values of adjacent component to this component. Then, the preliminary evaluation of the research object can be realized by judging the grade of research object, mining the depth transfer between the identical and contrary components, and using the second-order partial connection number to expand the model. Finally, the water resources carrying capacity was evaluated and analyzed based on the above results. The results of applying the model to the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Hefei city from 2009 to 2018 showed that the water resources carrying capacity of Hefei city was in a critical state, but on the whole, it showed a steady and rising trend. The consistency with the previous studies verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the model and the comparison with the confidence threshold method show that the proposed model overcomes some subjectivity and has good expansibility.