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投稿时间:2019-10-27 修订日期:2020-06-16
投稿时间:2019-10-27 修订日期:2020-06-16
中文摘要: 近年来,国内外学者在综合能源服务的物理支撑技术和市场运营技术等方面开展了诸多有益的探索,其中,前者的研究成果较为丰富,而后者还相对匮乏,这一现实情况严重制约了中国综合能源服务的市场化、规模化发展。对此,本文关注于能源互联网与综合能源服务的发展协同性,分析了能源互联网在市场组织形式、服务商业模式和数据业务化3个方面对综合能源服务规模化发展的促进作用,进而研究、探讨了综合能源服务的市场运营模式及配套技术。一是,基于市场成熟度和信息透明度的变化趋势,将中国综合能源服务市场的发展划分为无组织的分散竞争阶段、局部平台化的信息汇聚阶段和全域生态化的产业生态阶段,并针对不同市场阶段构建了以能源服务商、信息运营商和综合能源服务平台为参与主体的市场组织形式。二是,从上述3类市场参与主体的价值闭环和运营流程入手,分别构建了以满足用户多元用能需求、积极链接供需双方撮合交易达成、引导各主体市场行为为核心的商业模式,并分析了各市场主体在不同市场阶段下的运营特性及经营核心。三是,探讨了综合能源服务市场运营所涉及4类关键技术的建模原理及技术框架:1)提出基于智慧终端、采集设备等数据来源,依托大数据、云计算、物联网等技术方法,考虑用户用能行为特征、用能需求特征及服务潜力等维度,构建用户多层级画像技术,以实现用户多维度用能需求和用能意愿的数据化、标签化、可视化;2)提出基于模糊综合评价、数据包络分析、综合集成赋权等技术方法,通过建立涵盖企业实力、服务能力和服务产品3方面的评价指标体系,构建能源服务商综合画像技术,以实现对综合能源服务商的客观综合评价;3)提出以分析、预测各类服务产品及服务市场未来供需趋势、影响因素和变化规律为主要目的的市场精准画像技术,并针对各类型市场主体的职能特点,分别探讨了适用于能源服务商和信息运营商的市场短期潜力评估方法、适用于综合能源服务平台的中长期市场趋势分析方法的构建思路;4)针对综合能源服务市场的阶段性发展路径,提出基于简单加权、和谐性分析、逼近理想解排序等多准则决策方法,构建面向市场分散竞争阶段的综合能源服务主动推送策略,以及基于组合服务、关联规则挖掘、协同过滤推荐等理论方法,构建面向市场信息汇聚阶段和产业生态阶段的规模性服务推荐策略。最后,从促进市场集中度和开放度不断提高、重视用户侧能源消费行为的引导与培育、提升用能数据获取能力和分析处理能力3个方面,对未来的研究、实践和政策制定工作提出了若干建议。总体而言,能源互联网的发展不仅将打破传统的能源服务供需模式,还将重塑综合能源服务业态,要充分发挥能源互联网推动综合能源服务规模化发展的促进作用,今后还需要在市场运营模式、技术等层面上开展更为广泛和深入的研究与实践工作。
Abstract:Currently, plenty topics in terms of the physical support technologies and the market operating technologies of integrated energy services (IESs) have been researched. It is obvious that a number of remarkable contributions related to the physical support technologies of IESs can be identified. However, few valuable conclusions of the market operating technologies can be summarized, which significantly prevents the IESs in China from being developed with marketization and scalability. Therefore, this paper focused on the synergetic development of the energy internet (EI) and the IESs, which analyzes the promotional effects of the EI for serving the scalability of IESs from three aspects including the organizational form of market, the business model of service providers, and the digital strategy of business process. Moreover, this paper further researched and discussed the market operating models of IESs and matching technologies. Three detailed works done by this paper were presented as, the first one was based on the trends of the market maturity level and the transparency of relevant information, the development of IESs market in China was divided into three phases including the unorganized phase of decentralized competitive market, the locally plat-formalized phase of information aggregation, and the global ecological phase of industrial eco-management. In each phase, the organizational form of market considering the participations of the energy service providers, the information operators, and the platform of IESs were established. The second one was based on the individual-valued property and the operating procedure of the aforementioned three market participants, a business model was constructed in terms of satisfying the energy users’ diversified demands, linking the supply and requisitioning parties to close the deal, and guiding the behaviors of the variousmarket participants. The third one was the model theories and the technology frameworks of four key technologies of the market operating models of IESs were designed, including: 1) the energy users’ multi-level portrait model with considering the energy-consumption-behavior characteristics, the energy-demand characteristics, and the service potentialities of which were achieved based on the big data analytic, cloud computing, and the Internet of things (IOT) was presented; 2) the energy service providers’ comprehensive portrait technology through the establishment of an evaluation index system covering the three aspects of enterprise strength, service capabilities and service products of which were achieved based on the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the data envelope analysis, and the integrated weigh was presented; 3) the accurate market portrait technology which analyze and predict the supply and demand trends in the future, influencing factors and changing laws of various service products and service markets was presented. Besides, according to the functional characteristics of market subjects, the idea of short term market potential assessment method which suitable for energy service providers and information operators, and the idea to analyze the trend of mid long term market trend which suitable for the platform of IESs were illustrated respectively; 4) the proactive push strategy for IESs based on the multi-criteria decision-making, as well as the service recommendation strategy forthe stage of information aggregation and industrial ecological which based on the theoretical method were presented. At last, a number of suggestions of serving future researches, practices and policy decisions were put forward from the aspects of the promotions of the concentration and the openness of the market, the guidance and the cultivation of the energy consumption behavior of users in the demand side, and the improvements of the ability to obtain energy data and the data processing capacities. Summarizing, the development of the EI will innovate the traditional energy service supply and demand model, and reshape the format of IESs. It is necessary to carry out more extensive research and practical work in terms of market operation models and technologies in the future which will contribute to realize large-scale development of IESs.
keywords: energy Internet integrated energy services market operation development stage business model key technologies
文章编号:201901035 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家电网公司科学技术项目(52170018000S)
作者 | 单位 | |
李华强 | 四川大学 电气工程学院,四川 成都 610065 | lihuaqiang@scu.edu.cn |
李旭翔 | 四川大学 电气工程学院,四川 成都 610065 | |
阚力丰 | 国网眉山供电公司,四川 眉山 620010 |
作者简介:李华强(1965-),男,教授,博士. 研究方向:电力系统安全与稳定分析;能源经济. E-mail:lihuaqiang@scu.edu.cn
引用文本:
李华强,李旭翔,阚力丰.特约稿:能源互联网背景下综合能源服务市场运营模式及关键技术[J].工程科学与技术,2020,52(4):13-24.
LI Huaqiang,LI Xuxiang,KAN Lifeng.Market Operating Model and Key Technologies of Integrated Energy Services Under the Background of Energy Internet[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2020,52(4):13-24.
引用文本:
李华强,李旭翔,阚力丰.特约稿:能源互联网背景下综合能源服务市场运营模式及关键技术[J].工程科学与技术,2020,52(4):13-24.
LI Huaqiang,LI Xuxiang,KAN Lifeng.Market Operating Model and Key Technologies of Integrated Energy Services Under the Background of Energy Internet[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2020,52(4):13-24.