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工程科学与技术:2018,50(5):1-11
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山洪灾害监测预警关键技术与集成示范研究构想和成果展望
(1.长江水利委员会长江科学院, 湖北 武汉 430010;2.水利部 山洪地质灾害防治工程技术研究中心, 湖北 武汉 430010;3.四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室, 四川 成都 610065)
Research Framework and Anticipated Results of the Key Technology and Integrated Demonstration of Mountain Torrent Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning
(1.Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China;2.Research Center on Mountain Torrent Geological Disaster prevention of Ministry of Water Resources, Wuhan 430010, China;3.State key Lab. of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng., Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China)
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投稿时间:2018-08-31    修订日期:2018-08-22
中文摘要: 中国山洪灾害点多面广,发生频繁,但因山洪灾害问题的多样性和复杂性,目前在主要关键技术领域的研究仍处于起步和技术探索阶段,不能适应当前防御山洪灾害的实际需要。如何精准预报局地强降雨,研发山洪监测技术体系,提炼山洪灾害动态多预警指标,实现从注重灾后救助向灾前预防转变。如何研发因地制宜的山洪灾害预报模型,搭建风险评估平台,构建山洪灾害防御模式,提高山洪灾害预警和风险防范能力,是当前山洪灾害研究的前沿和热点问题,也是目前国家大力实施山洪灾害防治县级非工程措施项目建设必须要面对的现实问题。围绕上述问题,凝练如下3个关键研究目标:1)理清山洪灾害动力过程,建立山区局地暴雨预报模型和山洪动态模拟模型;2)研发构建山洪多要素立体监测技术与体系,实现山洪灾害预警与风险评估信息的实时动态传输与发布,解决山洪洪峰流量预报精度不高、预警期和应急抢险处置时效短等问题;3)构建多层次、多目标的山洪灾害动态预警与风险评估平台,提炼山洪灾害防灾减灾模式,并示范推广。通过研究实现以下创新:1)从揭示诱发山洪的中小尺度天气系统形成机理入手,研发山区短时临近暴雨预报技术,提高山区致灾洪水暴雨预报精度,有效延长山洪灾害预警期。2)通过研究多源遥感、雷达、微纳感知、智能识别等山区雨洪监测数据采集技术与适应、实用稳定的传统技术集成与融合,构建空天地一体化山洪多要素立体监测技术体系,实现技术创新,延长山洪预警期。3)通过解析山区暴雨洪水-灾变响应过程,阐明暴雨山洪形成过程及致灾动力机制,构建基于降雨预测和土壤含水量动态监测的山洪过程动态模拟模型,提高山洪灾害预警准确性与可靠性。4)以山区洪水的运移过程为切入点,建立山洪灾害多指标预警模型,研发山洪灾害实时动态分级预警技术,有效延长灾害预警期,提高应急抢险应对处置时效。基于以上内容,为目前实施的山洪灾害防治县级非工程措施改造升级完善布局建设,提升国家防灾减灾救灾能力,保障山丘区人民生命财产安全和社会经济可持续发展提供科技支撑。
Abstract:Due to the diversity and complexity of mountain flood disasters, the research in key technical fields is still in the initial stage and cannot meet the actual needs of current mountain flood disasters. How to accurately forecast local heavy rainfall, develop a mountain flood monitoring technical system and a localized flood disaster prediction model, refine the dynamic warning indicators of mountain flood disasters, realize the transition from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster prevention, build a risk assessment platform, construct a mountain flood disaster prevention model, and improve mountain flood disaster warning and risk prevention capabilities are the frontiers and hot issues of current mountain flood disaster research, and the practical problems that must be faced in the construction of county-level non-engineering measures for mountain flood disaster prevention which strongly implemented by the country. Focusing on the above issues, the following three key research objectives are summed up. The first one is clarifying the dynamic process of mountain flood disasters, establishing a local rainstorm forecast model and a mountain flood dynamic simulation model. The second one is developing and constructing a multi-element monitoring technology and system for mountain flood, realizing real-time dynamic transmission and release of mountain flood disaster warning and risk assessment information, solving the problem of low accuracy of mountain flood peak flow forecast, short warning period and short-term emergency response. The last one is building a multi-level and multi-target dynamic early-warning and risk assessment platform for mountain flood disasters, refining the disaster prevention and mitigation mode of mountain flood disasters, and demonstrating and promoting that to the public. The following innovations will be achieved through the research. Starting from revealing the formation mechanism of small and medium-scale weather systems that induce flood, short-term near-storm forecasting techniques in mountainous areas is developed, the prediction accuracy of floods and torrential rains in mountainous areas is improved, and the warning period of mountain flood disasters is effectively extended. By researching multi-source remote sensing, radar, micro-nano sensing, intelligent recognition and other mountain rainwater monitoring data acquisition technology and integration of adaptive, practical and stable traditional technologies, a multi-element three-dimensional monitoring technology system for air and land integration is built, technological innovation and extend the mountain flood warning period is realized. Through the analysis of the response process of flood catastrophe process in mountainous areas, the formation process of rainstorm mountain floods and the dynamic mechanism of disasters are clarified, and the dynamic simulation model of mountain flood process based on rainfall prediction and dynamic monitoring of soil water content is constructed to improve the accuracy and reliability of mountain flood warning. Taking the migration process of mountain floods as the entry point, a multi-index warning model for mountain flood disasters is established, real-time dynamic grading warning technology for mountain flood disasters is developed, the warning period of disasters is effectively prolonged, and the aging time for emergency rescue responseis improved.
文章编号:201800927     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC1502500)
作者简介:张平仓(1961-),男,教授级高工.研究方向:山洪灾害.E-mail:zhangpc@mail.crsri.cn
引用文本:
张平仓,丁文峰,王协康.山洪灾害监测预警关键技术与集成示范研究构想和成果展望[J].工程科学与技术,2018,50(5):1-11.
ZHANG Pingcang,DING Wenfeng,WANG Xiekang.Research Framework and Anticipated Results of the Key Technology and Integrated Demonstration of Mountain Torrent Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2018,50(5):1-11.