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(1.四川大学 水利水电学院, 四川 成都 610065;2.四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点室, 四川 成都 610065)
Direct Method of Calculating the Manage-flood Based on Division of Dlood Period
(1.College of Water Resource & Hydropower, Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China;2.State Key Lab. of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng., Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract:The manage-flood is very important for flood control safety and economic effectiveness of reservoir engineering. There are two approaches which can be used to calculate the manage-flood at present, i.e., one is based on Copula functions, and the other is based on the principle of total probability. The latter can be divided into direct method and indirect method. The direct method based on the principle of total probability is explored in this article. The flood data for calculation of manage-flood have been divided into three condition:Sufficient data condition, relatively sufficient data condition and insufficient data condition. For sufficient data conditions, the length of flood data series in main flood season is greater than 30 years and the length of flood data series in pre-main flood season and post-main flood season is no less than 20 years, respectively; For relatively sufficient data condition, the length of flood data series in main flood season is greater than 30 years and the length of flood data series in non-main flood season is no less than 20 years; For insufficient data condition, the length of flood data series in main flood season is greater than 30 years and the length of flood data series in non-main flood season is less than 20 years. The calculating methods of manage-flood for three flood data conditions have been presented based on the principle of total probability in this paper. For sufficient data condition, the mathematical expect formula of total probability has been adopted with frequency analysis; for relatively sufficient data condition, the mathematical expect formula of total probability with combined data in non-main flood season was applied; for insufficient data condition, the back calculation approach was presented, and the formula of manage-flood based on the principle of total probability has been suggested. The case studies for calculating of manage-flood in different flood data conditions have been given for different basins. The comparison of the suggested method to the method of Copula function has been discussed. The results have showed that the suggested method is better than the method of Copula function, and the designed value of manage-flood is reasonable.

WANG Wensheng,YAO Ruihu,QIN Guanghua,LIANG Shuqi,DING Jing.Direct Method of Calculating the Manage-flood Based on Division of Dlood Period[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2019,51(1):75-82.