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投稿时间：2017-04-12 修订日期：2018-12-01
投稿时间：2017-04-12 修订日期：2018-12-01
中文摘要: 管运洪水是水库工程运用管理时所考虑的一种洪水，事关工程防洪安全和经济效益。当前推求管运洪水的途径分为2类：第1类是以Copula函数为基础的途径，第2类是以全概率原理为基础的途径。作者探讨了第2类途径中的直接法。将洪水资料分为充足、相对充足和不足3种情况，充足情况为主汛期的年最大洪水样本容量为30年以上，而前汛期和后汛期的样本容量分别为20年以上；相对充足情况为主汛期的年最大洪水样本容量为30年以上，而前汛期和后汛期的样本容量之和为20年以上；不足3种情况为主汛期的年最大洪水样本容量为30年以上，而前汛期和后汛期的样本容量之和少于20年。基于3种资料情况，提出了管运洪水计算的全概率直接推求方法。资料充足情况下，根据全概率公式直接采用频率分析推求管运洪水，提出了直接利用数学期望公式计算经验频率的思路；资料相对充足情况下，采用前汛期和后汛期的样本合并手段基于全概率公式采用频率分析推求管运洪水；资料不足情况下，提出了反算手段，建立了基于全概率公式的管运洪水推求方法。以多个流域洪峰流量序列为例对不同资料情况的管运洪水进行了推求，给出了各流域管运洪水计算成果，并与Copula函数法计算成果进行了对比。研究表明，以全概率原理为基础的管运洪水直接推求途径思路清晰，结果合理，因此建议途径是可行的，具有优势。
Abstract:The manage-flood is very important for flood control safety and economic effectiveness of reservoir engineering. There are two approaches which can be used to calculate the manage-flood at present, i.e., one is based on Copula functions, and the other is based on the principle of total probability. The latter can be divided into direct method and indirect method. The direct method based on the principle of total probability is explored in this article. The flood data for calculation of manage-flood have been divided into three condition:Sufficient data condition, relatively sufficient data condition and insufficient data condition. For sufficient data conditions, the length of flood data series in main flood season is greater than 30 years and the length of flood data series in pre-main flood season and post-main flood season is no less than 20 years, respectively; For relatively sufficient data condition, the length of flood data series in main flood season is greater than 30 years and the length of flood data series in non-main flood season is no less than 20 years; For insufficient data condition, the length of flood data series in main flood season is greater than 30 years and the length of flood data series in non-main flood season is less than 20 years. The calculating methods of manage-flood for three flood data conditions have been presented based on the principle of total probability in this paper. For sufficient data condition, the mathematical expect formula of total probability has been adopted with frequency analysis; for relatively sufficient data condition, the mathematical expect formula of total probability with combined data in non-main flood season was applied; for insufficient data condition, the back calculation approach was presented, and the formula of manage-flood based on the principle of total probability has been suggested. The case studies for calculating of manage-flood in different flood data conditions have been given for different basins. The comparison of the suggested method to the method of Copula function has been discussed. The results have showed that the suggested method is better than the method of Copula function, and the designed value of manage-flood is reasonable.
文章编号：201701015 中图分类号：TV122 文献标志码：
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51679155）；国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFC0401903）
作者简介:王文圣(1970-),男,教授,博士.研究方向:水文不确定性分析.E-mail:wangws70@scu.edu.cn
引用文本：
王文圣,姚瑞虎,覃光华,梁淑琪,丁晶.以洪水分期为条件的管运洪水直接推求法[J].工程科学与技术,2019,51(1):75-82.
WANG Wensheng,YAO Ruihu,QIN Guanghua,LIANG Shuqi,DING Jing.Direct Method of Calculating the Manage-flood Based on Division of Dlood Period[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2019,51(1):75-82.
引用文本：
王文圣,姚瑞虎,覃光华,梁淑琪,丁晶.以洪水分期为条件的管运洪水直接推求法[J].工程科学与技术,2019,51(1):75-82.
WANG Wensheng,YAO Ruihu,QIN Guanghua,LIANG Shuqi,DING Jing.Direct Method of Calculating the Manage-flood Based on Division of Dlood Period[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2019,51(1):75-82.