###
DOI:
工程科学与技术:2016,48(Z1):178-186
←前一篇   |   后一篇→
本文二维码信息
码上扫一扫!
基于系统动力学的电动汽车规模推演
(四川大学电气信息学院)
The Scale Evolution of Electric Vehicles Based on System Dynamics
(School of Electrical Engineering and Information,Sichuan University)
摘要
图/表
参考文献
相似文献
附件
本文已被:浏览 1455次   下载 175
投稿时间:2015-08-30    修订日期:2016-01-21
中文摘要: 为了解决电动汽车规模预测缺乏历史数据和专业方法的问题,本文采用系统动力学的方法,通过系统分析影响电动汽车发展的各类因素及其相关关系,建立了电动汽车规模预测的系统动力学模型。仿真分析了电动汽车的发展趋势,并通过敏感度效验分析了“示范推广—快速增长—平稳发展”阶段中重要影响因素。仿真分析发现:电动汽车规模将在未来呈现快速增长;电动汽车购买率则出现S型增长曲线,前期变化主要受政府政策影响,后期技术发展和基础设施建设将成为影响电动汽车发展的重要因素。
中文关键词: 电动汽车  系统动力学  模型
Abstract:In order to solve the electric vehicles scale prediction problem of lack of historical data and professional method, this paper is motivated to present a scale evolution algorithm which can help to measure the development of electric vehicles with considering multiple parameters. By employing the system dynamics theory, the presented theory is able to establish an effective model which is further used in the analysis of the development of electric vehicles. In the simulation, a number of important parameters have been studied including policy,subsidy,charge price,and so on, key factors in the three stages, i.e. “demonstration promotion, rapid growth and steady development”, are analyzed by sensitivity verification. The simulation results indicate that the evolution of electric vehicles scale would grow upward fast in future, while the purchasing ratio would be shown as S type curve, in which the change in the early stage would be affected by the government policies, while the development of technology and infrastructure construction will become the most critical factors in the later stage.
keywords: electric vehicle  system dynamics  model  
文章编号:201500870     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:推动电动汽车发展的充换电服务网络演变类比研究及其与配电网协同规划理论(5137711)1
作者简介:
引用文本:
周昊.基于系统动力学的电动汽车规模推演[J].工程科学与技术,2016,48(Z1):178-186.
zhouhao.The Scale Evolution of Electric Vehicles Based on System Dynamics[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2016,48(Z1):178-186.