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工程科学与技术:2013,45(4):21-26
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基于决策者风险偏好的混凝土坝浇筑方案灰靶评价模型
(武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室)
Gray Target Evaluating Model of Concrete Dam Pouring Schemes Based on Risk Preference of Decision Makers
(State Key Lab. of Water Resources & Hydropower Eng. Sci.,Wuhan Univ.)
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投稿时间:2012-12-07    修订日期:2013-04-28
中文摘要: 混凝土坝浇筑方案优选是一个在不确定环境下的多属性决策问题,评价指标具有模糊性和灰色关联的特点。为了增强指标权重的客观性和可信度,引入前景价值函数来描述决策者的风险态度,构建改进后的灰靶评价模型。分别以理想解最优方案点和理想解最劣方案点代表正、负靶心作为参考点,构造正、负标准模式对指标特征值进行灰靶变换,计算靶心系数和价值矩阵,根据综合前景价值最大化求解指标权重。最后结合工程实例,按照综合前景价值实现对各浇筑方案的排序,验证了方法的可行性和有效性。
Abstract:optimal pouring scheme selection (OPSS) is a multi-attribute decision making problem under uncertain circumstances.However,evaluation indexes for the OPSS can be fuzzy and gray.In order to improve the objectivity and credibility of the index weight,a prospect value function and an improved grey target model were introduced to describe the risk preference for decision-making.This model established positive and negative standard model by selecting the ideal optimization scheme and the ideal inferior scheme as its reference points for positive clout and the negative clout.Based on the standard modeling,a gray target transformation was performed for the calculation of grey bull’s-eye coefficient and the establishment of value-index matrix.Weight vector was calculated in the model as the maximum of comprehensive prospect value of the concrete pouring schemes.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the present model were verified by a real project case,and multiple concrete pouring placement schemes were ranked automatically by the model.
文章编号:201201005     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279137;51079115)
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卞小草,胡志根.基于决策者风险偏好的混凝土坝浇筑方案灰靶评价模型[J].工程科学与技术,2013,45(4):21-26.
Bian Xiaocao,Hu Zhigen.Gray Target Evaluating Model of Concrete Dam Pouring Schemes Based on Risk Preference of Decision Makers[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2013,45(4):21-26.