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投稿时间:2009-04-20 修订日期:2009-07-23
投稿时间:2009-04-20 修订日期:2009-07-23
中文摘要: 汛限水位动态控制域是水库实施汛限水位动态控制的基础与关键。考虑影响防洪调度风险的最重要风险源,即入库洪水预报误差及洪水过程线形状的不确定性,提出风险约束条件及其量化分析方法。将入库洪水不确定性、风险分析与汛限水位动态控制域的确定过程有机结合起来,利用预泄能力约束法和Monte-Carlo模拟方法推求三峡水库汛限水位动态控制域。在不增加防洪风险的前提下,三峡水库实施汛限水位动态控制可有效地提高中小洪水资源的利用效率,利用1~3 d的洪水预报信息,三峡水库汛期可增发电量6.99×108~14.45×108 kW·h。研究方法对其他水库实施汛限水位动态控制也有借鉴意义。
Abstract:The dynamic control bound of flood limited water level (FLWL) is a fundamental and key element for implementing reservoir FLWL dynamic control. The acceptable risk constraints and quantificational analysis of flood control operation were proposed by considering the most important risk sources, i.e., reservoir inflow forecasting error and uncertainty of flood hydrograph shape. The inflow uncertainty, risk analysis and the process of dynamic control bound determination were incorporated organically, and a dynamic control bound of reservoir FLWL was calculated using forecasting pre-release and Monte-Carlo simulation methods. The application results of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) showed that the dynamic control of FLWL can effectively increase middle and small flood water resources utilization rate without increasing flood control risk. The TGR could generate 6.99×108~14.45×108 kW·h extra hydropower energy during flood season by using 1~3 day inflow forecasting information. The proposed methods can also be applied to other reservoirs.
keywords: flood limited water level dynamic control bound inflow uncertainty risk analysis Three Gorges Reservoir
文章编号:200900358 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:国家十一五科技支撑计划(2009BAC56B02, 2008BAB29B09);水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701015);国家自然科学基金项目(50609017)
作者 | 单位 | |
李响* | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室 | lx0918@163.com |
郭生练 | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室 | |
刘攀 | 武汉大学 水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室 | |
万民 | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室 | |
刘心愿 | 武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室 |
作者简介:
引用文本:
李响,郭生练,刘攀,万民,刘心愿.考虑入库洪水不确定性的三峡水库汛限水位动态控制域研究[J].工程科学与技术,2010,42(3):49-55.
Li Xiang,Guo Shenglian,Liu Pan,Wan Min,Liu Xinyuan.The Dynamic Control Bound of Flood Limited Water Level Considering Inflow Uncertainty in Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2010,42(3):49-55.
引用文本:
李响,郭生练,刘攀,万民,刘心愿.考虑入库洪水不确定性的三峡水库汛限水位动态控制域研究[J].工程科学与技术,2010,42(3):49-55.
Li Xiang,Guo Shenglian,Liu Pan,Wan Min,Liu Xinyuan.The Dynamic Control Bound of Flood Limited Water Level Considering Inflow Uncertainty in Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2010,42(3):49-55.