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工程科学与技术:2008,40(1):21-26
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水库溃坝洪水预测方法研究及应用
(1.四川省农田水利局,四川 成都 610031;2.四川大学 水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川 成都 610065;3.中国水科院 防洪减灾所,北京100038))
Study on the Prediction Method of Flood due to Dam break and Its Applications
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投稿时间:2007-05-08    
中文摘要: 为了研究区域洪水风险、开发区域防洪风险图、预警系统和各种紧急预案,溃坝洪水因其突发性与 破坏性极强,对区域可持续发展构成严重威胁,成为防洪研究中的重要内容。为此,提出了将参数模型、 物理成因模型和瞬时全溃模型等有机结合来研究溃坝洪水,通过在四川省广安市全民水库的实际应用,结果 表明:将以上3种模型有机结果能够提高溃坝洪水预测精度、并且也能确定其可能的变化范围,从而为制定 有效的防洪措施或实际运行中是否启动应急预案提供决策依据。
中文关键词: 溃决洪水  预测方法  防洪
Abstract:In order to study regional flood risk, to develop hazard maps, alarm systems and emergency plans for flood controls, floods due to dam break have become an important issue of study because of their properties of highly un predictability and destructivity. A parameter model, a relatively simple and physically based model and an instantaneous dam break model are proposed in this paper for the study jointly. A case study was carried out in the Quan min reservoir located in Guang an municipal of Sichuan Province. Results indicate that the accuracy and the variation range of the predications can be made more accurate and certain by applying the three models together for the study of dam break floods. Therefore, an effective flood control measure can be developed based on the results of the study. In addition, whether an emergency plan should be started or not in real time operations can be made accordingly on the basis of the results predicated.
文章编号:20080105     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
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隆文非 ,张新华,黄金池.水库溃坝洪水预测方法研究及应用[J].工程科学与技术,2008,40(1):21-26.
.Study on the Prediction Method of Flood due to Dam break and Its Applications[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2008,40(1):21-26.