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工程科学与技术:2007,39(6):36-40
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泥石流流域的概率分布
(中国科学院 山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,四川 成都 610041)
Probability Distribution of Debris flow Valleys
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投稿时间:2006-08-24    
中文摘要: 泥石流是典型的山区小流域活动,根据《中国泥石流数据库》的6000余个泥石流流域的基本数据,中国95%的泥石流沟发生在面积小于50 km2的流域。几个泥石流多发区和全国的泥石流流域面积分布都属于广义的Γ分布。分布参数的大小表现出明显的地域性差异;分布形式也可能在一定程度上反映了泥石流发生的物理学机制。最后,结合面积-流量关系讨论了泥石流规模的分布,提出泥石流的规模-频率关系可能具有更一般的指数分布形式,而不是通常认为的负幂形式。
中文关键词: 泥石流  流域面积  概率分布
Abstract:Debris flows always occur in small drainage basins in mountainous areas, i.e., in basins almost in size of less than 50 km2 in China. Nearly 6000 basins out of the collection of the Database of Debris Flow in China are taken into account in the context of the country and several particularly chosen regions where debris flow is frequently consequential to reveal the relationship between drainage area and occurrence frequency. Statistics of these basins indicates a distribution in the general exponential form, i.e., the generalized Gamma distribution, which takes Weibull, Gamma, and exponential distribution as its particularities.The Weibull distribution is perhaps the most likelihood that, in a natural way, defines a hazard rate for the weighting probability of the basin area; and, of more significance, from which results a failure mechanism of the debris-flow system.Finally, observational data of debris-flow-surge discharge of Jiangjia Gully is mustered as surrogate variables to confirm the general magnitude-frequency relation of debris flow. Distribution in the same exponential form as the drainage area has been found, which implies a correlation between debris flow and the spatial features of a valley.
文章编号:20070607     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(40671025);山地所前沿项目资助(1100001062)
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引用文本:
李泳,刘晶晶,陈晓清.泥石流流域的概率分布[J].工程科学与技术,2007,39(6):36-40.
.Probability Distribution of Debris flow Valleys[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2007,39(6):36-40.