Deriving Storm Intensity Formula Based on the Relationship between the GEV Parameters and Durations

Zhou Hao-lan

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Deriving Storm Intensity Formula Based on the Relationship between the GEV Parameters and Durations

更新时间：2023-11-14

- Deriving Storm Intensity Formula Based on the Relationship between the GEV Parameters and Durations
- Advanced Engineering Sciences Vol. 44, Issue Z1, Pages: 37-41(2012)
- 作者机构：
  
  中山大学
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2012，
  
  Published Online：24 January 2012，
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周浩澜.基于GEV分布模型参数与历时关系的暴雨强度公式推求[J].工程科学与技术,2012,44(Z1):37-41.

Zhou Hao-lan. Deriving Storm Intensity Formula Based on the Relationship between the GEV Parameters and Durations. [J]. Advanced Engineering Sciences 44(Z1):37-41(2012)
周浩澜.基于GEV分布模型参数与历时关系的暴雨强度公式推求[J].工程科学与技术,2012,44(Z1):37-41. DOI：

Zhou Hao-lan. Deriving Storm Intensity Formula Based on the Relationship between the GEV Parameters and Durations. [J]. Advanced Engineering Sciences 44(Z1):37-41(2012) DOI：

摘要

中文摘要: 本文将GEV概率分布模型引入到东莞市城区年最大降雨强度频率分析中，并与国内常用的对数Pearson-Ⅲ概率分布模型和Gumbel概率分布模型进行了比较，通过拟合优度检验，确定 GEV概率分布模型优于对数Pearson-Ⅲ概率分布模型和Gumbel概率分布模型。国内现常用的暴雨强度公式基于经验Horner公式，具有参数推求复杂，无确定解释解，并且存在非常大的不确定性，本文利用GEV分布模型参数与历时关系推导出一个新型的暴雨强度公式，并与传统经验公式法进行了比较，结果显示，本文方法对观测数据的拟合效果更好，并且参数易推求，推导的暴雨强度公式具有更高的确定性和鲁棒性。

Abstract

Abstract:Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution model is fitted to the annual maximum rainfall intensity data for Dongguan city and is compared with Log-Pearson-Ⅲ and Gumbel model commonly used in china . The goodness-of-fit test is used to seek among GEV、Log-Pearson-Ⅲ and Gumbel distribution model which fits best. According to the result of test

the GEV distribution model is better than Log-Pearson-Ⅲ and Gumbel distribution model. Horner's equation is common used for deriving storm intensity formula. However

the method is uncertainty and complicated to estimate parameters. There are no explanation solutions for the parameters. So

a new method to derive storm intensity formula by the relationship of the GEV parameters with durations is proposed and compared with the method based on Horner's equation. The result shows that the method is better fit to the observed data. In addition

it is robust and convenient to estimate parameters.

关键词

降雨城市洪水频率分析拟合优度检验暴雨强度公式

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