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DOI:
工程科学与技术:2010,42(Z1):38-42
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地震后降雨激发区域地质灾害危险性预测
(中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所)
Study on Rainfall-Induced Regional Geohazard Prediction Following Wenchuan Earthquake
(Inst.of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sci. and Ministry of Water Conservancy)
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投稿时间:2010-04-12    修订日期:2010-06-12
中文摘要: 512汶川地震之后,由于地震动使得斜坡结构松动破坏,地震灾区对地质灾害及其敏感,在降雨或外届轻微的扰动下,就极易失稳,发生崩滑流等地质灾害。虽然距汶川地震已经2年,但是地震灾区汛期在降雨激发条件下地质灾害的预警报依然是亟待解决的科学问题。根据地质灾害的发生机理,耦合地质灾害危险度区划模型和区域地质灾害的时间概率和空间概率预测模型,提出了一套基于概率模型的降雨激发区域地质灾害概率预警的方法。根据地震灾区本身的气象水文和地质环境特点,建立降雨诱发灾害的概率模型和预警指标体系,紧密结合气象部门提供的降雨概率和降雨量为基础,以时空概率模型为依据,对研究区进行地质灾害预警模拟和结果检验,证明该方法是可靠的。概率预警方法提高了区域降雨型地质灾害的时间与空间预警体系的准确性,可地震灾区震后的防灾减灾和灾害预警提供科学依据。
Abstract:It has been two years after the Wenchuan earthquake taking place in 12 May, 2008. Researchers are still concerned about the prediction of the geohazards which were triggered by the earthquake during the rain season in these years.As a random event geohazards occurrence is affect by environmental factors and triggering factors. According to geohazards mechanism, the probability based prediction method of regional rainfall-induced geohazards is proposed by the combination of geohazards hazard zonation and probability of regional rainfall-induced geohazards occurrence. Then, the method is applied in earthquake hit region of Chengdu City, Sichuan province, which is established by the analysis of geological environment and hydrology of study area, the model is based on geohazards occurrence probability and the data of meteorology. This method is credible, note that the probability prediction method was capable of effectually improving geohazards time and space warning system.
文章编号:201000339     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:科技部国际合作重点项目,中国科学院西部博士项目
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引用文本:
杨宗佶.地震后降雨激发区域地质灾害危险性预测[J].工程科学与技术,2010,42(Z1):38-42.
yang zong ji.Study on Rainfall-Induced Regional Geohazard Prediction Following Wenchuan Earthquake[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2010,42(Z1):38-42.