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投稿时间：2008-06-13 修订日期：2008-11-23
投稿时间：2008-06-13 修订日期：2008-11-23
中文摘要: 水文模型不确定性分析GLUE（Generalized Likelihood uncertainty Estimation）方法常用似然判据Nash-Sutcliffe系数（确定性系数），这种判别标准侧重对整体过程误差的估计，对点状况如洪峰的表征不够，不能准确地反映模型的不确定性情况。本研究基于GLUE方法，建立了多准则似然判据，应用北方水库常用的大伙房模型，对碧流河水库洪水预报的不确定性进行研究，并给出预报误差分析。结果表明，将常用的确定性系数似然判据扩展为洪峰误差、洪量、峰现时间、确定性系数四个目标的多准则似然判据，能更好地反映模型的实际不确定情况，对模型参数的率定和不确定性研究具有重要意义。
Abstract:GLUE(Generalized Likelihood uncertainty Estimation) is a very wide-used methodology for uncertainty analysis of hydrological model. How to select an appropriate likelihood measure is still an open question so far. Usually the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient is a traditional likelihood measure, but this measure focuses on the global performance without a special assessment in point condition especially for flood peak. A multi-criteria likelihood measure is presented within GLUE methodology, which consists of peak forecast error, runoff error, peak time error, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. Based on the DHF(Da Huofang)model, it was applied to Biliuhe catchment. Forecasting error analysis was deduced. The results show the multi-criteria likelihood measure has improved compared with the original measure in describing the real uncertainty of model, which is very valuable for model calibration and uncertainty study.
keywords: flood forecasting uncertainty analysis GLUE multi-criteria likelihood measure DHF(Da Huofang) model
文章编号：200800168 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:国家自然科学基金
| Author Name | Affiliation | |
| LIU YAN-LI | liuyl@student.dlut.edu.cn | |
作者简介:
引用文本：
刘艳丽,梁国华,周惠成.水文模型不确定性分析的多准则似然判据GLUE方法[J].工程科学与技术,2009,41(4):89-96.
LIU YAN-LI.Uncertainty analysis of hydrological model using multi-criteria likelihood measure within the GLUE framework[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2009,41(4):89-96.
引用文本：
刘艳丽,梁国华,周惠成.水文模型不确定性分析的多准则似然判据GLUE方法[J].工程科学与技术,2009,41(4):89-96.
LIU YAN-LI.Uncertainty analysis of hydrological model using multi-criteria likelihood measure within the GLUE framework[J].Advanced Engineering Sciences,2009,41(4):89-96.